Another 'expert' picks Cowboys to win NFC Championship

observer · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 196

---
September 5, 2007
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=268259
---

Excerpts:

.... come February 3 in Glendale, Ariz., the Patriots
will beat the Cowboys -- our NFC Super Bowl pick --
and hoist the Lombardi for the fourth time in seven
years. ...

Sporting News Picks

---
AFC East Patriots
AFC North Bengals
AFC South Colts
AFC West Chargers
Wild cards Broncos, Ravens

AFC title Patriots over Chargers
---

---
NFC East Cowboys
NFC North Bears
NFC South Saints
NFC West 49ers
Wild cards Eagles, Seahawks

NFC title Cowboys over Saints
---

Super Bowl Patriots over Cowboys

---

Archived from group: alt>sports>football>pro>dallas-cowboys

WJ · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 17

I wonder what the track record is
for these people over the last couple
of years. If they are 60% right, then
maybe there's something to listen to.

But if their accuracy is like 15% or
less, well, that says it all.

observer · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 196

"observer" wrote in message
$0$11205$a82e2bb9@reader.athenanews.com...
>
> ---
> September 5, 2007
> http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=268259
> ---

Pete Prisco also has the Cowboys as the best in the
NFC,
http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/powerrankings
but in the USA Today list of 8 'experts', only 1 predicts
the Cowboys will be NFC Champions, although 5 of 8
predict they'll win the NFC East (none pick the Eagles
as NFC Champions, and 3 of 8 pick the Eagles to win
the NFC East). Most (6 of Cool

pick the Saints as NFC
Champions (1 of 8 picks the Bears) and 1 of 8 picks
the Saints as Super Bowl winner (1 picks the Colts,
1 picks the Ravens, 2 pick the Patriots, and 3 pick the
Chargers).
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2007-09-05-staff-season-picks_N.htm

> Excerpts:
>
>
> ... come February 3 in Glendale, Ariz., the Patriots
> will beat the Cowboys -- our NFC Super Bowl pick --
> and hoist the Lombardi for the fourth time in seven
> years. ...
>
> Sporting News Picks
>
> ---
> AFC East Patriots
> AFC North Bengals
> AFC South Colts
> AFC West Chargers
> Wild cards Broncos, Ravens
>
> AFC title Patriots over Chargers
> ---
>
> ---
> NFC East Cowboys
> NFC North Bears
> NFC South Saints
> NFC West 49ers
> Wild cards Eagles, Seahawks
>
> NFC title Cowboys over Saints
> ---
>
> Super Bowl Patriots over Cowboys
>
> ---

Postal68 · Joined: 28 Sep 2007 Posts: 1

"observer" wrote in message $0$11205$a82e2bb9@reader.athenanews.com...
>
> ---
> September 5, 2007
> http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=268259
> ---
>
> Excerpts:
>
>
> ... come February 3 in Glendale, Ariz., the Patriots
> will beat the Cowboys -- our NFC Super Bowl pick --
> and hoist the Lombardi for the fourth time in seven
> years. ...
>

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Look fools,
The Cowboys are decent team that could win the division with some breaks,
I'll give you that. But they don't have a chance in hell at going to the
SuperBowl. If you believe that they do, I have some Jersey Swampland to
sell ya.

Yeah!!! · Joined: 28 Sep 2007 Posts: 1

These experts also picked the Eagles to come in last place a year ago.

"observer" wrote in message $0$11205$a82e2bb9@reader.athenanews.com...
>
> "observer" wrote in message
> $0$11205$a82e2bb9@reader.athenanews.com...
>>
>> ---
>> September 5, 2007
>> http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=268259
>> ---
>
> Pete Prisco also has the Cowboys as the best in the
> NFC,
> http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/powerrankings
> but in the USA Today list of 8 'experts', only 1 predicts
> the Cowboys will be NFC Champions, although 5 of 8
> predict they'll win the NFC East (none pick the Eagles
> as NFC Champions, and 3 of 8 pick the Eagles to win
> the NFC East). Most (6 of Cool

pick the Saints as NFC
> Champions (1 of 8 picks the Bears) and 1 of 8 picks
> the Saints as Super Bowl winner (1 picks the Colts,
> 1 picks the Ravens, 2 pick the Patriots, and 3 pick the
> Chargers).
> http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2007-09-05-staff-season-picks_N.htm
>
>> Excerpts:
>>
>>
>> ... come February 3 in Glendale, Ariz., the Patriots
>> will beat the Cowboys -- our NFC Super Bowl pick --
>> and hoist the Lombardi for the fourth time in seven
>> years. ...
>>
>> Sporting News Picks
>>
>> ---
>> AFC East Patriots
>> AFC North Bengals
>> AFC South Colts
>> AFC West Chargers
>> Wild cards Broncos, Ravens
>>
>> AFC title Patriots over Chargers
>> ---
>>
>> ---
>> NFC East Cowboys
>> NFC North Bears
>> NFC South Saints
>> NFC West 49ers
>> Wild cards Eagles, Seahawks
>>
>> NFC title Cowboys over Saints
>> ---
>>
>> Super Bowl Patriots over Cowboys
>>
>> ---
>
>

Allister Fiend · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 16

Yep, the "experts" are always right. No use in even watching the games.

--
Go Eagles,
AF

±©_Flipper_Mike_®³ · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 4

Postal68 wrote:

> "observer" wrote in message
> $0$11205$a82e2bb9@reader.athenanews.com...
>
>>---
>>September 5, 2007
>> http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=268259
>>---
>>
>>Excerpts:
>>
>>
>>... come February 3 in Glendale, Ariz., the Patriots
>>will beat the Cowboys -- our NFC Super Bowl pick --
>>and hoist the Lombardi for the fourth time in seven
>>years. ...
>>
>
>
> BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA
>
> Look fools,
> The Cowboys are decent team that could win the division with some breaks,
> I'll give you that. But they don't have a chance in hell at going to the
> SuperBowl. If you believe that they do, I have some Jersey Swampland to
> sell ya.
>
>
>
My prediction for the Cowboys...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1TxiVhrkZA

Barq's is good, drink it · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 1

On Sep 5, 2:00 pm, "Postal68" wrote:
> BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA
>
> Look fools,
> The Cowboys are decent team that could win the division with some breaks,
> I'll give you that. But they don't have a chance in hell at going to the
> SuperBowl. If you believe that they do, I have some Jersey Swampland to
> sell ya.

Your last line makes no sense, Jersey is ALL swampland, except the
parts that are landfill and Turnpike. So you have some swamp for
sale, then, because nearly all of US Cowboy fans believe that our team
is going to the Super Bowl this year...

Now, if you got some nice ocean front property in Neveda, that I might
consider buying...

observer · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 196

"WJ" wrote in message
$TW6.113647@newsfe06.phx...
>
> I wonder what the track record is
> for these people over the last couple
> of years. If they are 60% right, then
> maybe there's something to listen to.
>
> But if their accuracy is like 15% or
> less, well, that says it all.

Well, last year, I used a hedged near
random (HNR) number generator to cre-
ate predictions, and I believe I was the
only one on the planet to predict New
Orleans would win the NFC South.

Of course, with a hedged near random
number generator, I was bound to get
quite a few wrong, but wasn't that far
removed from SI.com's Don Banks' pre-
dictions, Don's predictions having been
made at the end of the 2006 preseason
(see below).

Suffice to say, history (and last year's
standings) play a very strong role, and
are difficult for most prognosticators
to overcome. If they overcome that,
and do a detailed analysis on each
team, still, it's difficult to predict in-
juries or how a team will respond to
injuries, or how a new coaching staff
will impact the team, so ...

.... nevertheless, for one looking for a
bright light (among the gloom being
conveyed about the Cowboys' chances,
mostly by fans of other teams), predic-
tions that list the Cowboys among the
NFC or NFL elite are encouraging.

--- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

2006 Predictions -- Hedged near-random
picks vs. SI.com's Don Banks
http://tinyurl.com/2sdj4c

Excerpt:

In 2006, on July 23rd, the following hedged
near-random method was used to make pre-
dictions for the 2006 season, close to the
random method of merely tossing a coin,
but hedged primarily to include Dallas as
the NFC East winner:
http://tinyurl.com/39jl9t

In 2006, on September 1st, Don Banks of
SI.com made his predictions:
http://tinyurl.com/3857kf

Which method was closer to the actual final
standings of 2006?

As one might expect, SI.com's Don Banks,
picking at a late date, coming closer in 4
divisions, tied in 2. Hedged near-random
picks came closer in 2 divisions, tied in 2.

....

---

Actual Standings ... HNR ... Diff ... SI.com ... Diff

NFC East

1. Philadelphia ......... 2 ......... 1 ........ 3 ........... 2
2. Dallas .................. 1 .......... 1 ........ 1 ........... 1
3. N.Y. Giants ......... 4 .......... 1 ........ 4 ........... 1
4. Washington .......... 3 .......... 1 ........ 2 ........... 2

Net Difference ....................... 4 ....................... 6

Winner: Hedged Near-random picks

---

Actual Standings ... HNR ... Diff ... SI.com ... Diff

NFC North

1. Chicago ................ 4 ........ 3 ......... 1 ........... 0
2. Green Bay ............ 2 ........ 0 ......... 4 ........... 2
3. Minnesota ............. 1 ........ 2 ......... 2 ........... 1
4. Detroit .................. 3 ........ 1 ......... 3 ........... 1

Net Difference ...................... 6 ........................ 4

Winner: SI.com's Don Banks

---

Actual Standings ... HNR ... Diff ... SI.com ... Diff

NFC South

1. New Orleans ........ 2 ........ 1 ........... 4 ......... 3
2. Carolina ............... 3 ........ 1 ........... 1 ......... 1
3. Atlanta .................. 1 ....... 2 ........... 2 .......... 1
4. Tampa Bay ........... 4 ........ 0 ........... 3 ......... 1

Net Difference ..................... 4 ........................ 5

Winner: Hedged Near-random picks

---

Actual Standings ... HNR ... Diff ... SI.com ... Diff

NFC West

1. Seattle .................. 3 ........ 2 .......... 1 .......... 0
2. St. Louis ............... 1 ........ 1 .......... 3 .......... 1
3. San Francisco ...... 4 ........ 1 .......... 4 .......... 1
4. Arizona ................ 2 ........ 2 .......... 2 .......... 2

Net Difference ...................... 6 ....................... 4

Winner: SI.com's Don Banks

---

Actual Standings ... HNR ... Diff ... SI.com ... Diff

AFC East

1. New England ........ 2 ........ 1 ......... 1 ........... 0
2. N.Y. Jets ............... 3 ........ 1 ......... 4 ........... 2
3. Buffalo .................. 4 ........ 1 ......... 3 ........... 0
4. Miami ................... 1 ........ 3 ......... 2 ........... 2

Net Difference ...................... 6 ........................ 4

Winner: SI.com's Don Banks

---

Actual Standings ... HNR ... Diff ... SI.com ... Diff

AFC North

1. Baltimore ............. 1 ........ 0 .......... 3 .......... 2
2. Cincinnati ............. 3 ........ 1 .......... 2 .......... 0
3. Pittsburgh ............. 4 ........ 1 .......... 1 .......... 2
4. Cleveland ............. 2 ........ 2 .......... 4 .......... 0

Net Difference ...................... 4 ........................ 4

Winner: Tied

---

Actual Standings ... HNR ... Diff ... SI.com ... Diff

AFC South

1. Indianapolis .......... 2 ........ 1 ......... 1 ........... 0
2. Tennessee ............. 4 ........ 2 ......... 3 ........... 1
3. Jacksonville .......... 3 ........ 0 ......... 2 ........... 1
4. Houston ................. 1 ........ 3 ......... 4 ........... 0

Net Difference ...................... 6 ......................... 2

Winner: SI.com's Don Banks

---

Actual Standings ... HNR ... Diff ... SI.com ... Diff

AFC West

1. San Diego ............ 1 ........ 0 ........... 2 ......... 1
2. Kansas City ......... 3 ........ 1 ........... 3 ......... 1
3. Denver ................. 4 ........ 1 ........... 1 ......... 2
4. Oakland ............... 2 ........ 2 ............ 4 ........ 0

Net Difference ..................... 4 ........................ 4

Winner: Tied

---

observer · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 196

"observer" wrote in message
$0$11161$a82e2bb9@reader.athenanews.com...

Correction:

>
> "WJ" wrote in message
> $TW6.113647@newsfe06.phx...
> >
> > I wonder what the track record is
> > for these people over the last couple
> > of years. If they are 60% right, then
> > maybe there's something to listen to.
> >
> > But if their accuracy is like 15% or
> > less, well, that says it all.
>
> Well, last year, I used a hedged near
> random (HNR) number generator to cre-
> ate predictions, and I believe I was the
> only one on the planet to predict New
> Orleans would win the NFC South.

Whoops, the HNR actually picked them
to finish 2nd. Still, quite closer than SI.com's
Don Banks, who picked them to finish last.

>
> Of course, with a hedged near random
> number generator, I was bound to get
> quite a few wrong, but wasn't that far
> removed from SI.com's Don Banks' pre-
> dictions, Don's predictions having been
> made at the end of the 2006 preseason
> (see below).
>
> Suffice to say, history (and last year's
> standings) play a very strong role, and
> are difficult for most prognosticators
> to overcome. If they overcome that,
> and do a detailed analysis on each
> team, still, it's difficult to predict in-
> juries or how a team will respond to
> injuries, or how a new coaching staff
> will impact the team, so ...
>
> ... nevertheless, for one looking for a
> bright light (among the gloom being
> conveyed about the Cowboys' chances,
> mostly by fans of other teams), predic-
> tions that list the Cowboys among the
> NFC or NFL elite are encouraging.
>
> --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
>
> 2006 Predictions -- Hedged near-random
> picks vs. SI.com's Don Banks
> http://tinyurl.com/2sdj4c
>
> Excerpt:
>
> In 2006, on July 23rd, the following hedged
> near-random method was used to make pre-
> dictions for the 2006 season, close to the
> random method of merely tossing a coin,
> but hedged primarily to include Dallas as
> the NFC East winner:
> http://tinyurl.com/39jl9t
>
> In 2006, on September 1st, Don Banks of
> SI.com made his predictions:
> http://tinyurl.com/3857kf
>
> Which method was closer to the actual final
> standings of 2006?
>
> As one might expect, SI.com's Don Banks,
> picking at a late date, coming closer in 4
> divisions, tied in 2. Hedged near-random
> picks came closer in 2 divisions, tied in 2.
>
> ...
>
> ---
>
> Actual Standings ... HNR ... Diff ... SI.com ... Diff
>
> NFC East
>
> 1. Philadelphia ......... 2 ......... 1 ........ 3 ........... 2
> 2. Dallas .................. 1 .......... 1 ........ 1 ........... 1
> 3. N.Y. Giants ......... 4 .......... 1 ........ 4 ........... 1
> 4. Washington .......... 3 .......... 1 ........ 2 ........... 2
>
> Net Difference ....................... 4 ....................... 6
>
> Winner: Hedged Near-random picks
>
> ---
>
> Actual Standings ... HNR ... Diff ... SI.com ... Diff
>
> NFC North
>
> 1. Chicago ................ 4 ........ 3 ......... 1 ........... 0
> 2. Green Bay ............ 2 ........ 0 ......... 4 ........... 2
> 3. Minnesota ............. 1 ........ 2 ......... 2 ........... 1
> 4. Detroit .................. 3 ........ 1 ......... 3 ........... 1
>
> Net Difference ...................... 6 ........................ 4
>
> Winner: SI.com's Don Banks
>
> ---
>
> Actual Standings ... HNR ... Diff ... SI.com ... Diff
>
> NFC South
>
> 1. New Orleans ........ 2 ........ 1 ........... 4 ......... 3
> 2. Carolina ............... 3 ........ 1 ........... 1 ......... 1
> 3. Atlanta .................. 1 ....... 2 ........... 2 .......... 1
> 4. Tampa Bay ........... 4 ........ 0 ........... 3 ......... 1
>
> Net Difference ..................... 4 ........................ 5
>
> Winner: Hedged Near-random picks
>
> ---
>
> Actual Standings ... HNR ... Diff ... SI.com ... Diff
>
> NFC West
>
> 1. Seattle .................. 3 ........ 2 .......... 1 .......... 0
> 2. St. Louis ............... 1 ........ 1 .......... 3 .......... 1
> 3. San Francisco ...... 4 ........ 1 .......... 4 .......... 1
> 4. Arizona ................ 2 ........ 2 .......... 2 .......... 2
>
> Net Difference ...................... 6 ....................... 4
>
> Winner: SI.com's Don Banks
>
> ---
>
> Actual Standings ... HNR ... Diff ... SI.com ... Diff
>
> AFC East
>
> 1. New England ........ 2 ........ 1 ......... 1 ........... 0
> 2. N.Y. Jets ............... 3 ........ 1 ......... 4 ........... 2
> 3. Buffalo .................. 4 ........ 1 ......... 3 ........... 0
> 4. Miami ................... 1 ........ 3 ......... 2 ........... 2
>
> Net Difference ...................... 6 ........................ 4
>
> Winner: SI.com's Don Banks
>
> ---
>
> Actual Standings ... HNR ... Diff ... SI.com ... Diff
>
> AFC North
>
> 1. Baltimore ............. 1 ........ 0 .......... 3 .......... 2
> 2. Cincinnati ............. 3 ........ 1 .......... 2 .......... 0
> 3. Pittsburgh ............. 4 ........ 1 .......... 1 .......... 2
> 4. Cleveland ............. 2 ........ 2 .......... 4 .......... 0
>
> Net Difference ...................... 4 ........................ 4
>
> Winner: Tied
>
> ---
>
> Actual Standings ... HNR ... Diff ... SI.com ... Diff
>
> AFC South
>
> 1. Indianapolis .......... 2 ........ 1 ......... 1 ........... 0
> 2. Tennessee ............. 4 ........ 2 ......... 3 ........... 1
> 3. Jacksonville .......... 3 ........ 0 ......... 2 ........... 1
> 4. Houston ................. 1 ........ 3 ......... 4 ........... 0
>
> Net Difference ...................... 6 ......................... 2
>
> Winner: SI.com's Don Banks
>
> ---
>
> Actual Standings ... HNR ... Diff ... SI.com ... Diff
>
> AFC West
>
> 1. San Diego ............ 1 ........ 0 ........... 2 ......... 1
> 2. Kansas City ......... 3 ........ 1 ........... 3 ......... 1
> 3. Denver ................. 4 ........ 1 ........... 1 ......... 2
> 4. Oakland ............... 2 ........ 2 ............ 4 ........ 0
>
> Net Difference ..................... 4 ........................ 4
>
> Winner: Tied
>
> ---