Divisional Scenarios after week 14

ParrotRob · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 4

Cross-posted to both the Ravens and Bengals newsgroups.

I've taken a look at the three remaining weeks of the season and the
possible outcomes for winning the AFC North. With six combined games
remaining, there are 64 possible outcomes of those games (not counting ties,
which I don't want to get into).

Out of those 64 possible outcomes, 42 of them result in Baltimore winning
the division with an outright better record.

7 of them result in Cincinnati winning the division with an outright better
record.

15 scenarios result in a like record for both teams. If the teams DO finish
tied, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head record, which, of course, is now
even at 1-1.

The second tiebreaker is divisional record. In 12 of the 15 scenarios, the
Bengals will finish with the better divisional record and win the division.
There are only three scenarios where the two teams could end in a tie for
overall record AND divisional record. In all three of those scenarios,
Cincinnati must beat San Francisco and St. Louis, and Baltimore must lose to
Oakland. If these three things DO happen, any of the following three
scenarios will result in tied records AND tied divisional records:

1) Cincinnati beats Cleveland, Baltimore beats Cleveland and Baltimore beats
Pittsburgh
2) Cleveland beats Cincinnati, Baltimore beats Cleveland and Pittsburgh
beats Baltimore
3) Cleveland beats Cincinnati, Cleveland beats Baltimore and Baltimore beats
Pittsburgh

If any of those scenarios happen, the third tiebreaker would be common
games. There is no scenario where the two teams can tie for overall record
and NOT tie for common games record, so this tiebreaker will not solve
anything.

The fourth tiebreaker is conference record. Again, there is no scenario
where the two teams can tie for overall record AND divisional record and NOT
tie for conference record, so this tiebreaker will also not solve anything.

The fifth tiebreaker is "strength of victory". I'm not sure what this means
yet (although I do know it's different from "strength of schedule"),
although as of right now, according to the NFL, Cincinnati leads the
strength of victory tiebreaker 0.489 to 0.417 (although Baltimore leads the
strength of SCHEDULE tiebreaker, go figure).

So what all of this means, basically, is that as of right now, ANY scenario
involving a tie between the two teams will result in the division going to
Cincinnati, unless something changes in the strength of victory category.

Clear as mud, eh?

Archived from group: alt>sports>football>pro>baltimore

Mark · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 3

Got some free time on your hands, eh PR?

Seriously, that's some good research, but as I see it, only one fact realy
matters - we control our own destiny. None of those scenarios matter if we win
out.

Having said that, I do think a 10-6 record will still probably win the
division. My bet is Cincy will lose (at least) one more game this year:
Probably to St. Louis, possibly to San Fran as well. At least I hope so - I
really don't want to have to go into that final Sunday Night game with the
whole season riding on the outcome.

Mark
(Sign on my neighbor's truck - "I'd rather have my daughter work in a
whorehouse than be a Steeler's fan")

John A James · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 2

I thought "strength of victory" was related to the difference between points
scored and points allowed. I guess I must be wrong about that, because the
Ravens would definitely be ahead of the Bengals in that regard. It's
probably a BCS type of formula (just what the NFL needs).

John J.

ParrotRob · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 4

"John A James" wrote in message@comcast.com...
> I thought "strength of victory" was related to the difference between
points
> scored and points allowed. I guess I must be wrong about that, because
the
> Ravens would definitely be ahead of the Bengals in that regard. It's
> probably a BCS type of formula (just what the NFL needs).
>

Like I said, I have no clue what it means. I do know that if you go to
www.nfl.com and click on the Standings page, there is a link for "2003
Conference Standings" that lists the "Strength of Victory" factor for every
team (the fifth tiebreaker). Good luck trying to figure out how the Ravens,
at 8-5, 331PF, 251PA have a smaller "strength of victory" than the Bengals
at 7-6, 281, 297.

If anyone finds out how it's calculated, please enlighten us!

ParrotRob · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 4

"Mark" wrote in message@mb-m11.aol.com...
> Got some free time on your hands, eh PR?

Well the Pats/Dolphins game was so damn boring I had to get into
SOMETHING.... Wink

On a side note, have you noticed how the broadcasters doing the other games
are FINALLY starting to give some props to the Ravens as a team to contend
with?

Chaos · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 8

PR - good job.

Mark · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 3

>Like I said, I have no clue what it means. I do know that if you go to
>www.nfl.com and click on the Standings page, there is a link for "2003
>Conference Standings" that lists the "Strength of Victory" factor for every
>team (the fifth tiebreaker). Good luck trying to figure out how the Ravens,
>at 8-5, 331PF, 251PA have a smaller "strength of victory" than the Bengals
>at 7-6, 281, 297.
>
>If anyone finds out how it's calculated, please enlighten us!

Strength of Victory is the combined records of all the teams you BEAT that
season (as opposed to Strength of Schedule, which is the combined record of all
the teams you played). The Bengals are ahead of us in this tiebreaker
primarily because of their victory over 11-2 Kansas City.

Mark
(Sign on my neighbor's truck - "I'd rather have my daughter work in a
whorehouse than be a Steeler's fan")

Chaos · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 8

> Strength of Victory is the combined records of all the teams you BEAT that
> season (as opposed to Strength of Schedule, which is the combined record
of all
> the teams you played). The Bengals are ahead of us in this tiebreaker
> primarily because of their victory over 11-2 Kansas City.

Ahhhhhh... that makes sense Mark.. thanks for enlightening us.

Michael Lawson · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 1

"Chaos" wrote in message@corp.supernews.com...
> PR - good job.

I completely agree. Well done. (And I'm not even an AOLer!! Wink

--Mike L.

ParrotRob · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 4

"Mark" wrote in message@mb-m11.aol.com...
> >Like I said, I have no clue what it means. I do know that if you go to
> >www.nfl.com and click on the Standings page, there is a link for "2003
> >Conference Standings" that lists the "Strength of Victory" factor for
every
> >team (the fifth tiebreaker). Good luck trying to figure out how the
Ravens,
> >at 8-5, 331PF, 251PA have a smaller "strength of victory" than the
Bengals
> >at 7-6, 281, 297.
> >
> >If anyone finds out how it's calculated, please enlighten us!
>
> Strength of Victory is the combined records of all the teams you BEAT that
> season (as opposed to Strength of Schedule, which is the combined record
of all
> the teams you played). The Bengals are ahead of us in this tiebreaker
> primarily because of their victory over 11-2 Kansas City.

Yuck, in that case we'll never get that tiebreaker from Cincy with Oakland,
Cleveland and Pittsburgh left on our schedule.

John A James · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 2

Mark wrote:

> Strength of Victory is the combined records of all the teams
> you BEAT that season (as opposed to Strength of Schedule,
> which is the combined record of all the teams you played).

We will never win that tiebreaker considering who we have left to play, so
let's hope the Bengals lose to the Rams and/or the Ravens win out.

Welcome back, Mark -- nice to a member of the old "low grade trash" group
return to the fold!

John J.

LARGE EYES · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 3

Finally found this on some oddball site.....

My hunch was right. By beating those really good teams, it is helped---what is
odd is you can hurt yourself by beating a bad team? Very odd. How big is
losing to Arizona and the Ravens "win" against Seattle? Either would, not only
change the standings, but affect the common schedule records. It's quite
amazing.......

Strength of victory is the season-ending winning percentage of all the
opponents a team has defeated. Strength of victory can change after final week.

LARGE EYES · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 3

According to bengalszone.com

Strength of victory – margin of victory.

LARGE EYES · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 3

In article , "ParrotRob"
writes:

>although as of right now, according to the NFL, Cincinnati leads the
>strength of victory tiebreaker 0.489 to 0.417 (although Baltimore leads the
>strength of SCHEDULE tiebreaker, go figure).

I think it is about the quality of opponent that was BEATEN to get your number
of victories. The Bengals have a higher Strength of victory beating KC,
Seattle and Baltimore than by beating Oakland, Arizona and Pittsburgh.

Mark · Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 3

>
>According to bengalszone.com
>
>Strength of victory – margin of victory.
>

They're wrong.

As mentioned here earlier, "Strength of Victory" is the combined schedules of
all the team's you've beaten.

Mark
(Sign on my neighbor's truck - "I'd rather have my daughter work in a
whorehouse than be a Steeler's fan")

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