All right, finally time to break things down and discuss my preseason
NFL pix.

NFC North: Start with the division of my team, the Packers. Ugh...
Worst division in football last year, with the Packers at least with a
three-game inflation of record to 12-4 last year. And that doesn't
even count the three other teams combined could only muster one more
win in total, and that was with seven wins between them in the
division (six games head to head and Minnesota's home win over Green
Bay). Add to that the swirling winds over Brett Favre's retirement,
the humiliating Packer losses to Atlanta and the Jets to end last
season, and a shaky preseason in Packer land, and it appears that, the
first 8-win team might get this division. This division goes vs. NFC
West, AFC West, and the matching placed teams in the NFC South and
East.

The Packers, though they are purported to have one of the easier
schedules, have a particularly brutal one after a first four weeks
where they should (and almost HAVE TO) go 4-0. Try this on for size:
Home to improving Seattle and Kansas City. Then at St. Louis before
the bye week. Then at Minnesota, home to Philly (Mon.), at Tampa (a
game they pretty well have to win for any designs on being in Houston
in February), home to San Fran, and at Detroit on Thanksgiving. Then
home to Chicago, at San Diego and Oakland (Mon.) and home to Denver.

I'm picking the Pack to go 9-7, at best. The second half of the
season is going to horrifically wear these guys down. They'll still
win the division by three games, as Minnesota is still way too thin
(though an impressive preseason win over the Raiders might've exposed
them as finally reaching the crest of the hill before going over)...
If Minnesota wants to win the North (or even contend for a wildcard),
they have to win in week 1 over the Pack at Lambeau. If that happens,
Minny should win the division in a fair walk. Either way, I'm picking
the Pack, but this division could all but be decided in week 1.

The Lions might improve to 6-10 as well under Mooch, and WTF were the
Bears thinking in picking up Kordella Stuart??? With an extremely
tough schedule out of division and four teams really not up to par
with the excellent in the NFL, it would not surprise me at all if one
or more of the top five draft picks came from this division.

Pack 9-7 (eliminated in WC round)
Minny 6-10
Detroit 6-10
Chicago 5-11

NFC South: From the worst div. in football to one of the best. At
least until Michael Vick got hurt. Michael Vick is one of the few
players who can redefine the NFL predictions by getting hurt. His
serious injury casts a dark pall over the Falcons and opens the door
to a capable New Orleans team and a Carolina defense that, if they get
minimal help from the offense, could even contend for a playoff spot.
(ESPNRadio's Mike and Mike actually predicted Carolina to go 10-6, one
game behind Tampa.) I think that really depends on whether Atlanta
can get Vick back at full strength before they stop hanging on.

As for Tampa, they have got to be odds-on for another Super Bowl --
maybe not as dominant as some of the other defenders who have become
preseason faves to get back to the big show, but if Tampa's offense
gets on track, the only two real questions are heart and injuries.
They win this division.

After that, it gets messy... Can Carolina's offense give enough help
to the defense to get it done? Can Atlanta hold on until Vick comes
back full strength and take a wildcard? Can New Orleans play like a
pro football team in December???

Tampa 12-4 (wins NFC)
Carolina 10-6 (wildcard, loses to St. Louis in the WC round)
Atlanta 10-6 (other wildcard, defeats GB again in the WC round, loses
to Tampa)
New Orleans 7-9

NFC East: Philadelphia and the Giants are going to be the two stories
here. Philly has lost quite a bit from its team last year, but the
biggest thing they might've lost was that bit of swagger when Tampa
punked their asses to close out the Vet. Can Donovan McNabb stay
healthy? If not, see Vick in Atlanta...

The Giants might be playing with the most fire of anybody, being
screwed out of the divisionals by an admitted bad call in San
Francisco. They proved they could play with Philly to win the spot,
but questions still abound in the special teams. The Giants went 10-6
last year, but start with four of their first six being St. Louis,
Miami, @NE, and Philly. The game on Dec. 28 with Carolina will
probably be for a wildcard spot.

Washington??? Nice pickups from the Jets, but do you have a
quarterback???

Dallas is still a couple years away, but Bill Parcells might have them
back in the playoffs as soon as he can find a real QB...

Philly 12-4 (beats St. Louis in the divisionals, loses to Tampa in the
conf.)
Giants 9-7 (loses the wildcard completely when they lose to Carolina,
losing the HTH to both Carolina and Atlanta)
Dallas 6-10
Washington 5-11 (at which time Steve Spurrier finds a new job)

NFC West: One of the most interesting divisions, as it might be
another one where the first 9-win team might get it. San Francisco is
poised for a huge fall with Jeff Garcia hurting and the coaching
turmoil that sent Mooch to Detroit. Will the real St. Louis Rams
please stand up -- the dominant team from the regular season two years
ago or the freefall last year? Will Seattle and Matt Hasselbeck make
believers out of the rest of us this year?

Arizona??? Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

St. Louis 10-6 (beats Carolina in the WC, loses to Philly in the
divisionals)
Seattle 9-7
San Francisco 7-9
Arizona 3-13

So my predictions on the NFC side are:

Atlanta over GB
St. Louis over Carolina

Philadelphia over St. Louis
Tampa Bay over Atlanta

Tampa over Philly for a return trip to the Bowl.

The key here: Offense wins games -- defense wins championships. As I
said after the Super Bowl, after a year where the quarterback ruled
the roost, it came down to who can stop who... Tampa's dominating
defensive performance in crushing the #1 offense in the Bowl last year
could well redefine who truly is the most important in football.
Tampa is in a position to be scary-good if their offense can play with
it's head in it and not make mistakes. I'm not saying 19-0 good --
but 14-2 regular season is not out of the question if the offense
wakes up.

The rest of this conference is much like the AFC -- average. Philly's
got the best D -- at least last we checked -- so they're the second
choice. After that, it gets pretty messy...

AFC to come...

Mike

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