Week 4 primer: Scoring is elementary for Holmes, 3-0 Chiefs
Wed Sep 24, 3:15 PM ET
By Vinnie Iyer - Sporting News

Only three weeks have been played, but there already is a bit of a
separation between the good and the ugly. There are six undefeated teams
to match six winless teams.

For the other 20 teams, this is a pivotal week of either sinking deeper
into mediocrity or rising up into contention. Looking at the Primer's
Week 3 stats (which I've conveniently buried way down below), the same is
true for me. . . .

GAME OF THE WEEK

Kansas City at Baltimore. Former Ravens running back Priest Holmes has
done pretty well for himself in KC, emerging as the league's premier
touchdown machine. Current Ravens running back Jamal Lewis is no slouch,
either -- if you don't know what he did two weeks ago, you probably
aren't reading this column.

Unfortunately for Jamal Lewis, the rest of his team -- other than Ray
Lewis and Todd Heap -- doesn't have enough to stop and keep up with how
Holmes and the Chiefs are wearing out the scoreboard.

Trent Green hasn't needed to do much, because Holmes, return specialist
Dante Hall and their defense are producing points galore. Dick Vermeil
has his team working hard in all phases of the game.

The Chiefs' one weakness lies in the secondary, but considering the
Ravens start a rookie quarterback and have no daunting receiving threats,
Jamal Lewis will need to carry the load again. The Chiefs' run defense
has improved enough to keep Lewis in check and keep them perfect. Chiefs
30, Ravens 20.

TUNA OF THE WEEK

Dallas at New York Jets (news). In a scheduling quirk, this will be the
second game at Giants Stadium for both teams this season. The league
scheduling powers just might be smiling on Bill Parcells, as they gave
him consecutive early-season shots at two of his former teams at the same
venue with an open week in between.

That scenario doesn't bode well for the Jets, who are desperately seeking
their first win. It's mastery of motivation time for Herman Edwards, but
Parcells is equally good at that, and his team has plenty to play for as
the NFC East race could become more than a two-team tango.

Quincy Carter busted out in Week 2, and the Cowboys have better legs on
both sides of the ball to make more big plays than the Jets. That will
lift them to another big road win on the Tuna Reunion Tour. Cowboys 23,
Jets 21.

MANNING OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis at New Orleans. Peyton will do Archie proud again this week,
despite the fact he will enjoy a nice and Big Easy homecoming at the
expense of his father's old team. Archie certainly never had the
supporting cast of the level that Peyton has.

The Colts' balanced offense will thrive against a hampered defense, and
their steadily improving cover 2 scheme will throw off Aaron Brooks and
the Saints, who won't be able to keep up on the scoreboard. Colts 28,
Saints 17.

SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK

San Diego at Oakland. There might be no better cure for the Raiders'
supposed "Super Bowl hangover" than a home game against the Chargers'
struggling young defense. Rich Gannon is seeing red, and this game will
get back him into a rhythm as he will have time to fire his short lasers
all over the field.

It won't be so easy, however, for the Raiders' struggling old defense to
protect the lead that Gannon helps give them. LaDainian Tomlinson ran for
153 yards in the Black Hole last season, and David Boston had one of his
best career games by abusing Charles Woodson in 2001.

Assuming Sebastian Janikowski isn't in jail when it's time to kick the
game-winning field goal, the Raiders will survive and advance to 2-2.
Raiders 29, Chargers 26.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Philadelphia over Buffalo. If the Eagles hope to have another shot at the
NFC championship game, they must win this game. If Donovan McNabb wants
to remain among the league's elite quarterbacks, he must win this game.
Those two reasons, combined with the fact that the Eagles have had two
weeks to regroup after their awful first two weeks, are why I think
Philadelphia will win this game.

I picked the Bills to win the AFC East, and that race still is getting
warmed up. Falling to 2-2 isn't so bad considering they still have four
division games left. The Eagles will be all but done at 0-3, but going to
1-2 puts them in good position to rebound with all six of their NFC East
games left.

Look for a very physical game from both sides, but the visitors will
grind it out to save their season. Eagles 20, Bills 19.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Denver over Detroit. I realized I picked the 3-0 Broncos to lose their
first three games, so I'm making up for it in a big way by giving them
this honor. I'm also using this forum to say that it's silly to compare
Jake Plummer to John Elway.

Why can't be Plummer be Plummer -- a fun, often erratic, mad-mobile
passer who won't be Cantonesque but will make enough plays to win games
considering what the Broncos have at running back, wide receiver and
tight end? The Lions' rapidly depleting defense would be lucky to stop
one of those positions on Sunday. Broncos 34, Lions 13.

REST OF THE WEEK

San Francisco at Minnesota. Each team features explosive wide receivers
in Terrell Owens and Randy Moss, but considering Moss is banged up and
Daunte Culpepper likely won't play, this game will come down to which
team runs the ball better on the Metrodome's fast track. Look for the
Vikings' offensive line to dominate the 49ers' front four, helping the
hosts control the clock and limit the opportunities for Owens and the
49ers' potent offense. Vikings 27, 49ers 19.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh. The Titans were tough in taking two games from
the Steelers last season, including a hard-fought divisional playoff win.
Both of those games were in Nashville, however, and the Steelers will
turn the tables at home, where their passing game will present plenty of
matchup problems for the Titans' defensive backs. Steelers 24, Titans 20.

Cincinnati at Cleveland. The Battle of Ohio might now refer to "Maurice
Clarett vs. the NFL," but I always go with "on the field" over "on
trial," so I'll take this version featuring NFL cities on opposite sides
of Columbus. Look for a fun game, with Primer main man Chad Johnson
making the difference. Bengals 21, Browns 17.

New England at Washington. Steve Spurrier's offense is working. Now, his
team must work on protecting Patrick Ramsey better (13 sacks), cutting
down penalties and not digging big first-half holes. Those weaknesses
will be enough for the savvy Pats to steal this up-and-down affair on the
road. Patriots 27, Redskins 26.

Atlanta at Carolina. The Panthers were blanked in two losses to the
Falcons last season, so they will come out well-rested and fired up to
avenge those embarrassments. Of course, it will also help that their
awesome front four won't need to worry about chasing Michael Vick this
time around. Panthers 13, Falcons 10.

Jacksonville at Houston. The Texans' offense is showing some life with
David Carr developing a go-to rapport with rookie wide receiver Andre
Johnson, and this week it will get an extra boost from Stacey Mack, who
should run hard against his former team. It soon might be time for the
Jags to showcase rookie QB Byron Leftwich (11-for-13, two TDs, as many as
Mark Brunell) in more than mop-up duty. Texans 24, Jaguars 21.

Arizona at St. Louis. The Cards responded to my Week 3 "lock pick" by
promptly putting a key into their ignition and driving over the Pack.
This week, St. Louis' old team will continue to show some fight and give
St. Louis' current team a few fits. Rams 28, Cardinals 20.

Green Bay at Chicago. The Packers packed it in and wilted in the
blistering desert last week, and they can't afford to take this game
lightly, as the Bears will do everything they can to christen renovated
Soldier Field with a prime-time win over their archrivals. If Mike
Sherman's team falters again against a far less talented team, he will
start to feel a different kind of heat. Packers 27, Bears 19.

WEEK OF THE REST

The Giants look like they will entertain us every week, win or lose. They
have the talent to put up big leads -- they just need a better way of
protecting them, starting with a home game vs. Miami next week. ...

Speaking of Miami, the Dolphins will win every game if they can get Ricky
Williams 40-plus carries. The battle for the AFC East also includes games
against the NFC East, so Williams must come back ready to muster another
big game in the Meadowlands. ...

The sleeper in Seattle has finally risen under Mike Holmgren. The 3-0
Seahawks are exciting on both sides of the ball, featuring a nice blend
of youth coming into its prime and veterans with something left to prove.
A trip to the not-quite-frozen tundra looms in Week 5, but you can bet
Holmgren and fellow former Packers coach Ray Rhodes want that game more
than anything. ...

Thanks to Brad Johnson, Michael Pittman, Mike Alstott and last but not
least, Warren Sapp, the Buccaneers' offense continues to get better in
its second year under Jon Gruden, and it will continue to take more
pressure off Sapp and the defense to carry the team.

STATS OF THE WEEK

Week 3 record straight up: 8-6 (At least the tailgate was great)
Week 3 record vs. the spread: 4-10 (The best barbeque ever)
Season record straight up: 28-18 (Did I mention the sauce?)
Season record vs. the spread: 20-26 (Who am I kidding? I got basted)

Vinnie Iyer is the NFL projects editor for The Sporting News. Email him
at viyer@sportingnews.com.

--
"The Chiefs do have a very good O-line, but obviously Priest Holmes has
become one of the great backs in the NFL. He's got speed, he's more
powerful than anybody knew and he's got a great sense of timing and
rhythm to his running game. - ESPN's Chris Mortensen

Now playing: "Johnny Winter - Cheap tequila"

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